Menghitung matriks probabilitas Dixon-Coles, Elo, dan verifikasi dual-confirmation...
Opta-Style Season Supercomputer — 10,000x Monte Carlo
Bivariate ρ-Correlated ✅ Verified Round-RobinMensimulasikan seluruh sisa jadwal liga secara vektorisasi dengan korelasi skor rendah ($ ho$), Gaussian form shock ($\sigma=0.14$), dan injury recovery decay.
Menjalankan 10,000 simulasi musim penuh & menghitung distribusi klasemen akhir...
| # | Klub | Main | W-D-L | GD | Pts | xPts (Mean) | Rentang P10–P90 | Proj GD | 🏆 Title % | ⭐ Top 4 / UCL | 🌍 Europe % | ⚠️ Relegation % |
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Custom Match Simulator
Simulasikan pertandingan khusus dengan parameter Dixon-Coles & Elo liga aktif.
Team Power Rankings & Quant Ratings
Attack ($lpha$): daya dobrak • Defense ($eta$): resistensi kebobolan • Home Fortress ($\gamma_i$): keuntungan kandang tim
| # | Tim | Elo Rating | Attack ($lpha$) | Defense ($eta$) | Home Adv ($\gamma_i$) | Net Power | Status Absensi Skuad | Form 5 Laga |
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Live Paper-Trading & Out-of-Sample Forward Ledger
Strict Pre-Match OnlyPencatatan real-time sinyal Dual-Confirmation yang belum kick-off, pelacakan steam closing price, dan auto-settlement saat laga usai.
| Tanggal | Liga | Pertandingan | Market / Pick | P(Model) | P(Blend) | Odds Taken | Closing Odds | Steam CLV % | Model EV % | Status | FT Score | PnL (Unit) | Brier / RPS |
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📈Cumulative Bankroll Equity Curve (15 Musim, N=3.764)
+84.4u PeakPertumbuhan profit kumulatif (Flat Stake 1 Unit per Bet) out-of-sample lintas 5 liga top Eropa.
🎯Probability Reliability (ECE)
ECE 0.73%Predicted Probability vs Observed Win Frequency (10 Decile Bins).
Riset Benchmark: Mengapa Strategi Dual-Confirmation 35/65 Dipilih?
Pada uji coba walk-forward 3.764 pertandingan (15 kombinasi liga-musim), formula lama Linear Blend 55/45 mengambil taruhan pada 58.5% pertandingan (2.252 bets) sehingga kalah terhadap vig bandar (-5.88% ROI). Dengan menerapkan Dual Confirmation Filter (Patch 4.3) yang mensyaratkan konfirmasi dari Orthogonal Residual Stacker dan membatasi deviasi model $\le 8\%$, frekuensi taruhan terpangkas ke rentang sehat 11.0% laga (423 bets terpilih) dan menghasilkan +6.03% Flat ROI, +1.76% Kelly ROI, dan 34.8% Max Drawdown.
Evaluasi Walk-Forward 1X2 (15 Musim Lintas 5 Liga Top Eropa)
Perbandingan Brier Score, Ranked Probability Score (RPS), Log-Loss, dan Steam Alignment terhadap Pinnacle No-Vig Closing Line.
| Liga | Musim | Matches | Brier Model | Brier Blend | Brier Mkt | RPS Blend | RPS Mkt | LogLoss Blend | Status vs Market | Value Bets | Steam Align | Flat ROI | Max DD | Sharpe |
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Evaluasi Walk-Forward Over/Under 2.5 (15 Musim)
| Liga | Musim | Matches | Brier Model | Brier Blend | Brier Market | Status vs Market | ROI All Picks | ROI Edge ≥3% |
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